Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 69927.556922 73946.342471 77970.148244 82298.270702 86819.056248 91398.717456 96385.697975
2025-04-13 62748.670634 68836.554415 75109.628737 82047.179852 89495.110208 97241.297950 105897.227137
2025-04-20 58558.258854 66124.123621 74097.306433 83106.557278 92983.648399 103462.816613 115401.304160
2025-04-27 55396.184285 64090.163023 73425.728369 84163.586217 96140.015674 109053.723489 123996.867980
2025-05-04 52511.817738 62071.655431 72508.036244 84699.991468 98502.569149 113594.050209 131291.479517
2025-05-11 49771.518162 59999.396692 71334.459426 84763.680546 100172.083708 117230.113117 137471.651012
2025-05-18 47493.381998 58297.921644 70438.608055 85007.737954 101928.223614 120871.162935 143588.838180
2025-05-25 45402.580026 56687.250305 69532.621295 85132.437281 103454.831201 124179.979425 149277.677592
2025-06-01 44068.792506 55884.023952 69492.901333 86199.666107 106022.166979 128652.698164 156296.711102
2025-06-08 42210.323513 54361.126259 68521.102149 86090.821805 107145.671699 131401.525538 161282.249425
2025-06-15 41241.439852 53859.957431 68720.603530 87336.791851 109844.556817 135983.359352 168425.238582
2025-06-22 40088.742316 53076.730018 68530.894476 88071.699432 111901.644583 139791.590617 174656.894054
2025-06-29 38650.144045 51899.032398 67831.300875 88169.300821 113189.724096 142704.370180 179869.998011
2025-07-06 37220.950762 50680.603961 67035.720621 88109.087194 114256.753593 145337.941171 184752.798109
2025-07-13 36478.904490 50299.514321 67251.675479 89278.007740 116817.890231 149777.900477 191837.678130
2025-07-20 35769.853826 49928.243072 67453.328928 90408.708910 119321.837466 154151.994252 198864.557117
2025-07-27 34849.516691 49246.719345 67231.120259 90979.514282 121111.662391 157646.862370 204827.079402
2025-08-03 33757.663374 48301.561858 66637.467455 91047.539647 122247.331972 160322.899397 209782.976326
2025-08-10 32808.420385 47511.581199 66213.705089 91306.274498 123604.333243 163264.443969 215072.445321
2025-08-17 31855.156791 46683.864505 65711.910245 91438.435614 124781.188319 165972.087594 220074.605681
2025-08-24 31364.938642 46461.837264 65987.560910 92569.213619 127232.790681 170286.430407 227110.927694
2025-08-31 30393.284398 45553.128702 65329.451795 92453.897097 128061.269646 172544.414231 231563.146297
2025-09-07 30036.887649 45476.047128 65766.154957 93773.878225 130750.304477 177172.715755 239038.620117